Hawaiʻi’s economy has technically recovered from the 2020 collapse, but growth remains uneven and fragile. Headline indicators such as GDP (gross domestic product) growth and low unemployment obscure sector imbalances, wage stagnation, and persistent disparities impacting Native Hawaiians.
In response, the Native Hawaiian Chamber of Commerce (NHCC) is actively investing in programs designed to strengthen earning power, business resilience, and long-term economic security.
The GDP trend for Hawaiʻi (from 2015–2025 YTD), showed steady growth through 2019, a historic contraction in 2020, and a gradual recovery beginning in 2021. By 2024–2025, real GDP modestly exceeded pre-pandemic levels. However, the recovery curve has flattened, signaling slow growth driven by a narrow set of sectors, rather than broad-based expansion. This suggests that while recovery exists, momentum is weak and unevenly distributed.
Tourism remains Hawaiʻi’s primary economic engine, but its composition has shifted significantly. Visitor arrival trends by market show that U.S. visitor arrivals have largely returned to near pre-pandemic levels, but that Japan visitor arrivals remain approximately 45–55% below pre-pandemic levels, driven largely by the yen’s weakness against the U.S. dollar.
Historically, Japanese visitors stayed longer, spent more per day, and supported local retail, dining, and cultural businesses. Their continued absence explains why many small businesses feel pressure even when total visitor numbers appear stable. This indicates that visitor mix matters more than visitor count.
Sectors performing relatively well include:
- Construction & Infrastructure: Supported by federal and public investment.
- Healthcare & Social Services: Sustained demand due to demographic trends.
- Professional & Financial Services: Growth tied to national and global clients.
Sectors under pressure are:
- Small Businesses, Retail, and Food Service: Rising rents, taxes, labor costs, and thin margins.
- Hospitality-dependent local enterprises: Shifts in visitor spending patterns.
- Creative and Cultural Businesses: Growing, but undercapitalized and vulnerable to volatility.
While Hawaiʻi’s statewide unemployment rate remains low (~2.8%), the unemployment comparison trend shows Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander unemployment near 8.9%.
Native Hawaiians remain overrepresented in lower-wage and more volatile sectors, meaning statewide employment statistics do not reflect lived economic conditions.
Wage growth vs. cost-of-living trend shows a widening gap since 2015. Wages have risen modestly, while housing, food, energy, and childcare costs have grown far faster. This mismatch contributes to workforce instability, multiple-job households, and out-migration.
In direct response to these challenges, NHCC launched Project Hoʻomana, a comprehensive workforce and business- development initiative designed to increase earning potential, business resilience, and long-term success for Native Hawaiian entrepreneurs and professionals.
Project Hoʻomana provides practical training in business fundamentals, branding, marketing, and emerging tools such as AI; cohort-based learning, mentoring, and peer networks and; access to resources that help Native Hawaiian businesses scale, diversify revenue, and compete effectively.
By equipping our members and community with real-world skills and support, Project Hoʻomana is focused on a clear outcome: empowering Native Hawaiians to earn more, to build sustainable businesses while incorporating cultural values, and remain home.
A healthy economy must be measured not only by growth, but by who benefits from that growth. NHCC remains committed to ensuring Native Hawaiians are positioned to lead Hawaiʻi’s economic future.
To learn more, please join us on January 14 for our Economic Conference. Visit www.nativehawaiianchamberofcommerce.org for details.
